The government on Monday said it estimated GDP or gross domestic product growth at 7.2 per cent in 2018-19, as against 6.7 per cent in 2017-18. The economic growth projection was part of the “First Advance Estimates of National Income 2018-19” report by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.
The growth estimate was in line with economists’ expectations.
Most private economists have lowered the country’s growth forecast to around 7 per cent for the 2018-19 fiscal year, compared with the central bank’s earlier estimate of 7.4 per cent, citing weakening consumption and slowdown in credit offtake.
“Sequential growth has slowed down across the board. Slowdown in manufacturing, construction and select services are the main reasons for slowdown seen in 2018/19,” said Rupa Rege-Nitsure, chief economist at L&T Financial Holdings.
Growth in real GVA or gross value added at basic constant prices (2011-12) was expected at 7.0 per cent in 2018-19, as against 6.5 per cent in the previous financial year. GVA is the measure of national income and output that includes taxes and excludes subsidies.
Improvement in the performance of agriculture and manufacturing sectors mainly contributed to the GDP growth estimate of the current financial year.
The sectors that are estimated to register growth above 7 per cent include electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services; construction; manufacturing; and public administration, defence and other services, the Central Statistics Office said in its report.
The economic growth of 6.7 per cent registered in 2017-18 was the slowest in four years. The GDP had expanded by 7.1 per cent in 2016-17, and 8.2 per cent in 2015-16.